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2016年11月份朝邦對話訊息: 哥倫比亞和平過程 / CPYF November newsletter - Colombian peace processs

哥倫比亞和平過程

2016年的9月28日,哥倫比亞總統桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)與哥倫比亞游擊戰軍革命武裝力量(FARC)的總指揮提莫千歌(Timochenko)簽署一份歷史性的協議,結束西方僵持最久的軍事衝突。過去52年來,FARC與哥倫比亞政府之間的血腥衝突,導至約26萬人因此喪命、4500人失蹤,4800萬人口的哥倫比亞,有670萬人流離失所。在超過五年的斡旋之後,雙方終於簽下和平協議,並以一只子彈製成的筆簽下協議。這是一項極具歷史意義的和平協議。

簽署之後,桑托斯宣布「因為世界上少了一場戰爭,哥倫比亞舉國歡慶,全球也將一起歡慶!」提莫千歌也代表FARC向人民請求寬恕,表示「我們將重生,步入和解與建立和平的時代…讓我們的心也隨之卸下我們的武裝吧。」

兩方的演講帶來如潮的掌聲,動容的人們無不起立致意,慶祝這不久前絕對想不到的時刻。10月7日,桑托斯總統也因此和平協議而榮獲諾貝爾和平獎,哥倫比亞人民卻為了這項與FARC簽署的協議而分裂。哥倫比亞面臨真正挑戰的時候,將在於執行這份協議的時期。

和平過程

所有的衝突都不盡相同,但是所有的和平協商過程,都面臨類似的挑戰與爭議。結束北愛爾蘭衝突的「受難日協議」(Good Friday Agreement) 的主要斡旋者,之後擔任桑托斯諮詢顧問的鮑爾(Jonathan Powel)表示:「這裡面是有既定的模式可循。當衝突的兩方都面臨受傷的僵局,兩方發現都無法在戰爭中取勝時,就可能達成協議。」

為了推動和平協商,協商者在正式啟動協商之前,先針對特定議程達成共識。這份議程是根據雙方歷經一年半的秘密協商後,初步訂下的一般協定內容而訂定,也成為規範雙方可協商內容的架構。

每一個和平協商過程,面臨的最艱困的挑戰之一,就是在和平與正義之間取得平衡。

在哥倫比亞和平協議中,轉型的正義將由特別的法庭審判FARC成員以及曾經參與戰爭罪刑的哥倫比亞軍方與警方。除此之外,哥倫比亞也向南非取經,參考南非真相與和解委員會的運作,讓游擊隊軍人認罪後,接受社區服務到軟禁等不同刑罰。

但長達52年的戰爭代表一整個世代經歷了無限的痛苦與不信任感。有些即使無法忘懷,也願意選擇原諒。但是有些人卻不願意。「我們要和平,但是這份協議無法帶來和平。」父親曾被FARC綁架六年的國會議員Luis Araujo表示:「他們應該在監獄裡待久一點。」

鮑爾表示:「必須從中找到平衡點。在北愛爾蘭,我們監囚IRA恐怖分子兩年後就將他們釋放…這是很艱難的一件事…但是如果你跟恐怖分子說『我希望你能簽署和平協議,然後關進大牢35年』,他們不可能會答應的。』」

如果歷史中的和平協議曾經讓我們從中有所教訓,那就是,這些大多數協議都會失敗。

FARC是發跡於農民革命的左翼份子,現在必須停止其高利潤、脈絡分布寬廣的犯罪活動,包括販毒、綁架與勒索等行為,才能進入哥倫比亞的民主體制運作。

「任何人與人之間的對話都會改變他們,」和平協議擔保國挪威特使尼蘭特(Dag Nylander)如此說明。當我問起哥倫比亞這段經驗能否為其他對立的國家帶來希望時,桑托斯也說:「我們以為這個和平過程根本不可能發生。」但是他也提醒,「這個協議肯定無法滿足所有人,但是會帶來和平,這絕對比持續內戰好。」

簽署之後,接下來就要交付選民透過全國性的公投投票做選擇。

2016年10月2日所舉行的公投開票顯示50.2%的選民反對這項協議,也就是桑托斯與FARC所達成的協議將無法執行。

為什麼選民反對?

桑托斯總統就任前的前任總統烏里貝(Álvaro Uribe),是大家普遍認為逼迫FARC參與協商會談的最大功臣,也是極力推動透過公投反對這次協商結果的政治運動領袖。烏里貝認為桑托斯對游擊軍太和善,也認為桑托斯背叛了大家。現任國會反對黨議員的烏里貝表示:「這項協議並未幫受害者帶來正義或真相。」

根據BBC所報導,反對這份協議的人士害怕的是,曾參與FARC的人士參與哥倫比亞政治體系,形成政黨,可能打開一扇門,讓哥倫比亞如同古巴與委內瑞拉等國一樣,最後推出激進的左翼政策。有些反對者單純不相信FARC有放下武器、和政府和平共處的誠意。

接下來呢?

由於最初擬定的和平協議如果無法在公投通過,就無法執行,因此接下來必須繼續協商。桑托斯承諾「在任內繼續追求和平,因為這樣才能打造出對下一世代更好的國家…我不會放棄。」公投結果公布之後,在哈瓦那接受記者訪問時,提莫千歌也表示他們組織仍然支持結束衝突:「相信我們,和平終將勝利。」

政治分析家傑洛多(Fernando Giraldo)跟「衛報」(The Guardian)說,政府與游擊戰隊都承諾支持和平,雖然令人樂觀,但是前途仍然不明。他表示:「公投將所有的規則都清清楚楚列出,可是我們卻卡在灰色地帶。」

即便如此,我們仍有許多值得樂觀的地方。首先,和平必須從人們的內心、心智與行動上展現。從這段TED談話中,我們看見一群人找出可以激發哥倫比亞游擊戰隊放下武器的契機,在叢林中策略性地安置聖誕樹與訊息。這段談話讓你可以看見這些充滿創意的文字如何讓這些游擊戰隊得成員一一放棄戰爭。

在《力與愛》一書中,作者亞當‧卡漢提到「命運哥倫比亞」的情境規畫專案也因為在團體內產生細微、看不見、非直向的改變,而在世界上創造出有感、看得見的改變。當時這個專案的成員包括政治、商界、公民團體、軍隊領袖 – 包括當時有衝突的軍方主要人士。這個專案針對哥倫比亞的未來詳細討論、撰寫出四個情境:

  1. 「當太陽升起時,我們都會看見。」這是預警如果哥倫比亞人無法化解這些最艱困的挑戰,繼續這樣下去會產生的混亂。

  2. 「一鳥在手勝過兩鳥在林。」這個故事敘述政府與游擊軍協商後的妥協。

  3. 「向前進行曲。」形容一個充滿挫折感的人民、暴力不斷的國家、政府,如何採取「非常問題需要非常手段」的態度,採取鎮壓游擊戰隊的政策,以執行和平政府。

  4. 「團結力量大。」則敘述一個從下而上翻轉這個國家的心性,邁向彼此尊重、合作的故事情節。

這些情境與過程提供相當有用的學習,可以在其他地方推動合作性的方案。

「命運哥倫比亞」也持續激發跨領域的對話與行動,思考這個國家所面對的社會、經濟、環境上的挑戰。

從哥倫比亞的經驗中,我們學到和平來自於人類彼此的同理,而不是我們在軍隊、受難者或敵方所扮演的角色。因為我們發現我們都屬於這個國家共同體,在同一個地球,而讓我們都能幸福的方式,就是透過和平與對話才能產生。



參考文獻:

  

The Colombian peace process

On 26 September 2016 the Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and the top guerrilla commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Timochenko, signed a historic peace agreement ending the longest armed conflict in the western hemisphere.  The 52 years of bloody conflict between the FARC and the Colombian government has left 260,000 people dead, 45,000 disappeared, and 6.7 million people displaced out of a Colombian population of 48 million.  The peace agreement was signed with a pen made from a bullet after more than five years of negotiations.  The stakes of this peace accord are monumental.


At the signing, President Santos declared "Colombia celebrates, the planet celebrates because there is one less war in the world!”  On behalf of the FARC Timochenko asked the Colombian people for forgiveness and declared that “We are being reborn to launch a new era of reconciliation and of building peace... let us all be prepared to disarm our hearts."

While these words earned a standing ovation that would have been unthinkable not long ago, and on 7 October 2016 President Santos received the nobel peace prize for this peace process, Colombians remain deeply divided over the deal struck with FARC.  The hard work of actually implementing the peace still lies ahead.


The Peace Process

Every conflict is different, but every peace process has similar challenges and controversies.  "There's a pattern," says Jonathan Powell, who was chief negotiator on the Good Friday Agreement that ended the conflict in Northern Ireland, and served as an adviser to President Santos.  "You usually get to an agreement when there is a mutually hurting stalemate, so both sides realise they can't win militarily” said Powell.

In order to advance the process, the negotiators first agreed on a fixed agenda before formally starting the negotiations. The agenda was based on a signed preliminary General Agreement that was constructed over a year and a half of secret negotiations and functioned as a framework defining which demands can be made and which not.  

One of the toughest challenges which bedevils every peace process is the balance between peace and justice.  In Colombia’s peace agreement, transitional justice would be managed by special tribunals to try FARC members, as well as soldiers and police in Colombian security forces, for alleged war crimes.  There is also a process, inspired by South Africa's Peace and Reconciliation Commission, which allows fighters to admit to their actions, and serve punishments ranging from community service to restrictions on their movements.  

But a 52-year war means a generation of pain and distrust. Some are ready to forgive, even if they cannot forget; but others are not.  "We want peace, but this accord will not bring peace," said senator Luis Araujo, whose father was kidnapped by the FARC for six years. "They need to spend more time in jail."

"You have to strike a balance," says Mr Powell. "In Northern Ireland, we let IRA terrorists out of jail after just two years. ...It was a very difficult thing to do...  But if you go to a terrorist leader and say, 'I want you to sign this agreement to make peace and go to jail for 35 years,' they won't be ready to sign."  

If the history of peace deals have any lessons, it is that most fall apart.  The FARC came from a Marxist-Leninist peasant revolt, and now must move away from its vast and lucrative network of criminal activities, including trades in drugs, kidnappings and extortion, in exchange for entering the country’s institutional democratic process.

"Any dialogue between human beings changes them," says Norwegian special envoy Dag Nylander, whose country, along with Cuba, served as guarantors to Colombia’s peace process.  "We thought this process was impossible," said President Santos when asked him if Colombia offers any hope for other intractable conflicts.  But he also offered some caution as well, "It would be a deal that will not satisfy everybody but will bring peace - and that's a better deal than continuing the war."  

Following the signing, all that would be needed is for voters to approve the agreement in a nationwide referendum.

That referendum was held on 2 October 2016; and 50.2 percent voted against the peace agreement, meaning that the deal struck between Santos and FARC can not be implemented.

Why did voters reject it?

Santos’ presidential predecessor, Álvaro Uribe, is widely credited with the crackdown that brought FARC to the negotiating table and he has also become the leader of the movement to reject the agreement through the referendum.  Uribe calls Santos a "traitor" for treating the guerrillas to easily. “With these agreements, there is neither justice nor truth for the victims,” said Mr. Uribe, who is now an opposition senator in Congress.

According to the BBC, opponents of the deal feared that allowing former FARC members to participate in the country’s political process as a legitimate political party could open the door to disastrous radical left-wing policies like those in Cuba and Venezuela.  And some opponents of the peace deal simply didn’t believe that the FARC was sincere in its intentions to lay down arms and make peace with the government.

What happens now? 

The peace agreement as it was written cannot be implemented without an approval by referendum, so it will have to be renegotiated. President Santos has promised to “continue the search for peace until the last moment of my mandate, because that's the way to leave a better country to our children ... I won't give up,” he said.  Speaking to journalists in Havana after Sunday's referendum results, Timochenko said that his group remains committed to ending the conflict, “Count on us, peace will triumph."

Fernando Giraldo, a political analyst, told the Guardian that the fact that both the government and guerrillas reiterated their commitment to peace was a good sign yet the future remains unclear. “The plebiscite laid everything out in black and white and now we’re stuck in a grey area,” he said.

And yet, there are many reasons to still feel positive.  The first reason is because peace fundamentally comes from every individual who realises it in their hearts, minds and actions.  Watch this TED talk about a group of people who saw an opportunity to inspire Colombia’s guerrilla fighters to demobilise by using Christmas trees and personalised messages strategically placed throughout the jungle. The talk gives you a look at the creative messages that has led thousands of guerrillas to personally abandon war.  

In the book Power and Love, Adam Kahane highlights the Destino Colombia scenario project which has also generated tangible and visible change in the world by using subtle, invisible, and nonlinear changes within and among us.  The project team included political, business, civil society, and military leaders—including representatives of all the main armed groups in the ongoing conflict.  The process produced four carefully argued, beautifully written scenarios for the future of Colombia; they are:

  1. “When the Sun Rises We’ll See”- a scenario describing the chaos that would result if Colombians just let things continue as usual and fail to address their tough challenges.

  2. “A Bird in the Hand Is Worth Two in the Bush” - a scenario depicting a negotiated compromise between the government and the guerrillas.

  3. “Forward March!” - a scenario in which the government, supported by a population frustrated with the continuing violence and operating from the principle that “a hard problem requires a hard solution,” implements a policy of crushing the guerrillas militarily and pacifying the country.

  4. “In Unity Lies Strength” - a scenario of a bottom-up transformation of the country’s mentality toward greater mutual respect and cooperation.

These scenarios and the process that created them offer useful lessons for collaborative, future-creating efforts elsewhere. Destino Colombia continues to inspire cross-sectoral dialogue and action to address the country’s daunting social, economic and environmental challenges ahead.

From Colombia’s experience comes the insight that peace comes from empathising with one other as humans; not as the functions we play in our social roles - as militant, victim or adversary.  Peace comes from realising that we are bound together within a shared nation, upon a shared globe, and our mutual pursuit for happiness is better achieved through peace and dialogue.



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